Forecasting ecological
impacts of sea-level rise on coastal conservation areas in India
M. Zafar-ul Islam 1,
Shaily Menon 2, Xingong Li 3 & A. Townsend Peterson4
1 Bombay Natural History
Society, Opp. Lion Gate, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Road, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400001,
India
1 Current Address: National
Wildlife Research Center, PO Box 1086, Taif, Saudi Arabia
2 Department of Biology, Grand
Valley State University, Allendale, Michigan 49401 USA
3 Department of Geography,
University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045 USA
4 Biodiversity Institute,
University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045 USA
1 mzafarul.islam@gmail.com (corresponding author),2 menons@gvsu.edu, 3 lixi@ku.edu, 4town@ku.edu
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.11609/JoTT.o3163.4349-58
Editor: S. Jayakumar, Pondicherry University, Puducherry,
India. Date of publication:26 May 2013 (online & print)
Manuscript
details: Ms # o3163 | Received 15 April 2012 | Final received 22
December 2012 | Finally accepted 18 April 2013
Citation: Islam, M.Z., S. Menon, X. Li & A.T.
Peterson (2013). Forecasting ecological impacts of sea-level rise on
coastal conservation areas in India. Journal of Threatened Taxa 5(9): 4349–4358; http://dx.doi.org/10.11609/JoTT.o3163.4349-58
Copyright: © Islam et al. 2013. Creative Commons
Attribution 3.0 Unported License. JoTT allows unrestricted use of this
article in any medium, reproduction and distribution by providing adequate
credit to the authors and the source of publication.
Funding: None.
Competing
Interest: None.
Acknowledgements:We gratefully acknowledge the suggestion and encouragement
from Dr. Asad Rahmani (Director, BNHS) to conduct this analysis and the
feedback from two anonymous reviewers which improved
the manuscript. We are grateful to
HH Prince Bandar bin Mohammad Saud Al Saud (President of SWA) and Mr. Ahmed
Boug (General Director, NWRC).
Author Details: Dr. M. Zafar-ul Islamis an ecologist with strong interest in international wildlife conservation.
His main research is on ecology and biology of globally threatened species of
birds and mammals and the geography and ecology of species’ distributions and
climate change. He has published 13 books mainly with OUP-BNHS and around 100
scientific papers/articles. Worked with the BNHS-India for 15 years and
presently with the National Wildlife Research Center since April 2006 as
Research Coordinator in Saudi Arabia. Dr. Shaily Menon is an
Associate Dean in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and a Professor of
Biology and Natural Resources Management at Grand Valley State University in
Michigan. Her research is in the areas of conservation biology, biodiversity
informatics, and examining the effects of land, sea, and climate change on
species and habitats. Dr. Xingong Liis an Associate Professor of Geography at the University of Kansas. His primary
research interest is in the development of spatial analysis methods and tools
to understand hydrological processes and the interaction between human and
water. Prof. A. Townsend Peterson is University Distinguished
Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Kansas. His
primary research interests lie in the geography and evolution of world birds,
geographic aspects of disease transmission risk, and the geography and ecology
of species’ distributions.
Author Contribution: MZI collected data, analysis
and paper writing in association with other authors. SM contributed to data
analysis, writing the manuscript, and compiling the figures for the
manuscript. XL contributed to data
analysis, specifically, the delineation of inundated areas by different sea
level rises. ATP assisted with study design and with
writing the manuscript.
Abstract: In addition to the mounting empirical data on direct
implications of climate change for natural and human systems, evidence is
increasing for indirect climate change phenomena such as sea-level rise. Rising sea levels and associated marine
intrusion into terrestrial environments are predicted to be among the most
serious eventual consequences of climate change. The many complex and interacting factors
affecting sea levels create considerable uncertainty in sea-level rise projections:
conservative estimates are on the order of 0.5–1.0 m globally, while
other estimates are much higher, approaching 6m. Marine intrusion associated
with 1–6 m sea-level rise will impact species and habitats in coastal
ecosystems severely. Examining
areas most vulnerable to such impacts may allow design of appropriate
adaptation and mitigation strategies. We present an overview of potential effects of 1m and 6m sea level rise
for coastal conservation areas in the Indian Subcontinent. In particular, we
examine the projected magnitude of areal losses in relevant biogeographic
zones, ecoregions, protected areas (PAs) and important bird areas (IBAs). In addition, we provide a more detailed
and quantitative analysis of likely effects of marine intrusion on 22 coastal
PAs and IBAs that provide critical habitat for birds in the form of breeding
areas, migratory stopover sites and overwintering habitats. Several coastal PAs and IBAs are
predicted to experience higher than 50% areal losses to marine intrusion. We explore consequences of such
inundation levels for species and habitats in these areas.
Keywords: Adaptation, biogeographic zones, coastal
inundation, ecoregions, important bird areas, marine intrusion, mitigation,
protected areas, sea-level change.
For figures, images, tables -- click here
Introduction
Several recent studies have
accumulated empirical evidence of climate change effects on the distribution
and diversity of species and ecosystems. Examples include poleward and upward elevational range shifts in
butterfly (Parmesan et al. 1999; Parmesan & Yohe 2003) and mammal species
(Moritz et al. 2008; Tingley et al. 2009), mistimed reproduction in bird
species (Visser et al. 1998) and advanced spring greenup and other changes in
plant phenology (Miller-Rushing & Primack 2008; Vitasse et al. 2009). Such empirical evidence is complemented
by predictive modeling efforts based on linkage of ecological niche models with
general circulation model (GCM) outputs (e.g., Erasmus et al. 2002; Peterson et
al. 2002, 2005; Thomas et al. 2004a; Araújo et al. 2005; Anciães & Peterson
2006), which anticipate similar poleward and upward shifts, with significant
range losses when species’ dispersal potential is constrained by geographic
factors.
Indirect climate
change-associated phenomena such as sea-level rise are also beginning to
receive attention. Major causes of
rising sea levels include thermal expansion of the ocean, mountain glacier
melting, and discharge ice from ice sheets (Dyurgerov & Meier 1997). Accelerating discharge of glacial ice
due to ice sheet melt and tidal and storm surges are expected to exacerbate the
situation further. Projections of
sea-level rise can vary dramatically owing, at least in part, to the complexity
of the factors contributing to this phenomenon. Carter et al. (2007) and IPCC (2007) offered
a conservative estimate of anticipated sea-level rise on the order of
0.5–1.0 m, while other estimates are much higher on the order of
4–6 m (Bindschadler 1998; Thomas et al. 2004b; Rignot & Kanagaratnam
2006).
Rising sea levels and
associated marine intrusion into terrestrial environments are expected to be
among the most serious consequences of climate change. Projected estimates of 1–6 m rise
of sea levels are likely to have catastrophic consequences for biodiversity and
humans. The human and economic
consequences of sea-level rise have received some attention in recent years
(Titus 1990; Mimura 1999; Hitz & Smith 2004; Bosello et al. 2007). A few analyses have addressed various
aspects of the biodiversity consequences of sea-level change: threatened and
endangered species’ habitat destruction in the southeastern US (Daniels et al.
1993), potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds (Galbraith et al.
2001), potential effects in a mangrove ecosystem (Gopal & Chauhan 2006),
likely effects on a single endangered species (LaFever et al. 2007) and
ecosystem adaptation to rising sea levels (McKee et al. 2007).
A first-pass global
assessment of biodiversity consequences of the sea-level rise (Menon et al.
2010), provided rough estimates of areal losses of ecoregions and species
extinctions due to marine intrusion: several ecoregions were projected to lose
more than half of their present-day land area even under a 1m sea-level
rise. Recent events, such as the
disappearance of New Moore Island in the Bay of Bengal (BBC News 2010) have
further underscored the urgency of this issue. Acknowledging the significance of this
topic, the Survey of India announced, in March 2010, a plan to map the hazard
line along India’s coastlines.
Here, we present an overview
of potential consequences of 1m and 6m sea-level rise for coastal conservation
areas on the Indian subcontinent. Specific objectives of this study were to explore (i) areal losses due
to marine intrusion in coastal biogeographic zones and ecoregions; (ii) likely
impacts of marine intrusion on coastal protected areas (PAs) and Important Bird
Areas (IBAs), which provide critical habitat for species; and (iii) adaptation
and mitigation strategies for minimizing such impacts.
Methods
Data Sources
We used the output of the
study generated by Li et al. (2009). This method implemented several steps in a GIS raster analysis framework
to select and designate as ‘inundated areas’ those cells that (i) are below a
projected sea level rise, (ii) are connected to the ocean, and (iii) are not
part of existing inland water bodies. The sea-level rise scenarios generated by this method are an improvement
on previous estimates (Dasgupta et al. 2007; LaFever et al. 2007) which tended to overpredict potential inundated areas.
GIS data sets of conservation
areas were obtained from various sources. Biogeographic zones (areas with shared biological and geographic
characteristics) were delineated from maps prepared by Rodgers & Panwar
(1988) and Rodgers et al. (2002). Ecoregion data were obtained from the
Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS Database (Olson et al. 2001). Protected areas maps were obtained from
the World Database on Protected Areas (IUCN and UNEP-WCMC 2010). Finally, point location data for
conservation areas were obtained from field surveys, published records and cross-checked with gazetteers of India (Islam & Rahmani
2004; Islam & Rahmani 2008).
Estimates of areal loss and
biodiversity impacts
We converted the GIS layers
of biogeographic zones, ecoregions and protected areas into equal-area grids
(we used Albers projection because it preserves area measurements). After assuring that all grids were on a
common projection and grid resolution, we estimated areal loss resulting from
marine intrusion by overlaying them with the 1m and 6m inundation grids. Grid-square resolution was 822m on a
side. Data on globally threatened
birds were collected from field surveys, published records, BirdLife International,
and Indian Bird Conservation Network (IBCN) partners, and were validated by
comparison with summaries from regional IBA workshops across the country in
2001 and 2002 (Islam & Rahmani 2004). Digital data on biogeographic zones were obtained from BirdLife
International (1998), Rodgers & Panwar (1988), Rodgers et al. (2000), and
Champion & Seth (1968).
Results
Total areal loss due to
marine intrusion into coastal areas of the Indian subcontinent is estimated at
approximately 13,973km2 (3%) and 60,497km2 (14%) of the
land area under the 1m and 6m sea-level rise
scenarios, respectively (Table 1). Inundation of biogeographic zones ranged from 0–18% under 1m
sea-level rise and 0–56% under 6m sea-level rise. As expected, “Coasts” and “Islands” are
the zones predicted to be most severely impacted by
potential marine intrusion. “Coasts” are predicted to undergo 12% and 56% inundation under the two
sea-level rise projections, and “Islands” are predicted to undergo 18% and 23%
inundation (Table 1).
Marine intrusion is predicted
to affect 18 of the 48 ecoregions in India (Table 2). Under the 1m sea-levelrise scenario, estimates of ecoregion inundation ranged from 19% to 59%. Under the 6m sea-levelrise scenario, estimates of ecoregion inundation ranged from 27–58 %
(Table 2). Under the 1m sea-level
rise scenario, one ecoregion (Godavari-Krishna mangroves) is predicted to lose
more than a quarter of its area and another (Sunderbans mangroves) is predicted
to lose more than half of its area. Under the 6m sea-level rise scenario, three ecoregions (Sunderbans
freshwater swamp forests, Andaman Islands rain forests, and
Maldives-Lakshadweep-Chagos Archipelago tropical moist forest) are predicted to
lose more than a quarter of their land areas, and three more (Sunderbans
mangroves, Godavari-Krishna mangroves, and Rann of Kutch seasonal salt marsh)
are predicted to lose more than half of their land area.
An overlay of point locations
of IBAs indicates that 12 IBAs (Austin Strait, Baratang—Rafter’s Creek,
Bhitarakanika, Chilka Lake, Coringa and Godavari Estuary, Interview Island,
Kattampally, Point Calimere, Pulicat Lake, Rani Jhansi Marine, Thane Creek, and
Vembanad Lake) are likely to be impacted to some degree by 1m sea-level rise;
an additional 12 (Banni Grassland and Chhari Dhand, Big Tank and Sakkarakotai
Kanmal, Chainpur and Hanspuri, Flamingo City, Kole, Land Fall Island,
Mahul-Sewri Mudflats, Sundarban, Tilanghong, Vaduvoor, Velavadar Blackbuck
Sanctuary, and Wildass and Nanda Island) are likely to be impacted by 6m
sea-level rise. Areal estimates are not possible for IBAs for lack of detailed
maps of their boundaries (Fig. 1a & b).
A closer examination of a
sample of 22 coastal conservation areas (Table 3) indicates that nine will be
spared effects of marine intrusion under 1m sea-level rise, but only one will
be spared under a 6m sea-level rise scenario. Of those impacted by marine intrusion,
the extent of predicted inundation is quite variable, ranging from 1–95 %
and 2–100 % under 1m and 6m sea-level rise, respectively (Table 3). Seven
protected areas (Bhitarkanika, Chilka Lake, Point Calimere, Interview Island,
Lothian Island, Sajnakhali, and Pulicat Lake) are expected to experience
>50% inundation under 1m sea-level rise, and an
additional four protected areas (Kachchh Desert, Velavadar, Pulicat, and Nal
Sarovar), join this list under 6m sea-level rise. Images 1–4 depict the extent of
predicted marine intrusion in some of these protected areas and their
surroundings.
Discussion
As in the preliminary
assessment of global areal losses of ecoregions (Menon et al. 2010), the
increased losses under the 6m scenario is clear in
this analysis. Several coastal
ecoregions and conservation areas are predicted to lose over half of their land
areas to marine intrusion, particularly under the 6m sea-level rise
scenario. Coastal zones have high
biological productivity and support large number of birds and other taxa
including mangroves. Populations of
several species are expected to be displaced as a
result of changes in the timing and magnitude of coastal biological
productivity due to climate change (Both et al. 2006).
Most IBAs
in coastal areas support species of global conservation concern, including some
endemic and several breeding populations of threatened species. Coastal IBAs in the Indian subcontinent
support significant populations of globally threatened birds such as
Spot-billed Pelican (Pelecanus philippensis), Oriental White-backed
Vulture (Gyps bengalensis), and Greater Spotted Eagle (Aquila clanga)
in Coringa, Godaveri, and Pulicat Lake estuaries on the coast of Andhra
Pradesh, and large congregations of Spot-billed Pelican, Painted Stork (Mycteria
leucocephala), Darter (Anhinga melanogaster), and Oriental White
Ibis (Threskiornis melanocephalus) at Gulf of Mannar Marine National
Park, Big Tank, Point Calimere Wildlife Sanctuary, Suchindram, Theroor,
Vembanoor, Kaliveli Tank & Yedayanthittu Estuary in Tamil Nadu and Bay of
Bengal.
Sites on the western coast,
such as Kattampally and Kole wetlands in Kerala, support large numbers of
Spot-billed Pelican, Greater Spotted Eagle, Darter, Painted Stork, and
Black-bellied Terns (Sterna acuticauda). Sites in Gujarat such as Chhari Dhand,
Banni, Charakla Saltworks, Flamingo City, Kaj Lake, Khijadiya coastal Lake,
Marine National Park, Nal Saorvar Sanctuary, Salt Pans of Bhavnagar, Wild Ass
Sanctuary, and Nanda Island support large numbers of coastal and wetland birds,
including large populations of Lesser and Greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus
minor, P. roseus), Common and Demoiselle Cranes (Grus grus and G.
virgo), Greater White Pelican (Pelecanus onocrotalus), Black-tailed
Godwit (Limosa limosa), Painted Stork, Black-necked Stork (Ephippiorhynchus
asiaticus), Indian Skimmer (Rynchops albicollis), and Dalmatian
Pelican (Pelecanus crispus). In Maharashtra, sites such as Burnt Island, Sewree-Mahul mudflats, and
Thane Creek support large congregations of flamingos and waders.
The Andaman Islands support
eight endemic bird species, and an additional four restricted-range species
that they share with the Nicobar Islands. One endemic species, the Narcondam Hornbill (Aceros narcondami),
is globally threatened and confined to the tiny island of Narcondam (<7km2)
in the northern part of the island group. The status of Narcondam Hornbill needs to be assessed quickly, given the
very small size of the island and its potential vulnerability. In addition, Andaman Teal (Anas
albogularis), endemic to the Andamans, is scarce, has recently declined,
and is likely to be affected by sea-level rise because of its coastal
distribution.
Similarly five bird species
are endemic to the Nicobar Islands. Three of the endemic species are globally threatened: Nicobar
Sparrowhawk (Accipiter butleri), Nicobar Megapode (Megapodius
nicobariensis) and Nicobar Bulbul (Hypsipetes nicobariensis); of
these, Nicobar Megapode is of particular concern because its greatest
concentrations are found in coastal forests. The other two endemic species, South
Nicobar Serpent-eagle (Spilornis klossi) and Nicobar Parakeet (Psittacula
caniceps) are both Near Threatened and confined to the southern islands,
and might also be affected.
The following globally
threatened waterbird species occur in coastal wetlands likely to be affected by
sea-level rise—Spot-billed Pelican (Pelecanus philippensis), Milky
Stork (Mycteria cinerea), Lesser Adjutant (Leptoptilos javanicus),
Spotted Greenshank (Tringa guttifer), Spoon-billed Sandpiper (Eurynorhynchus
pygmeus) and Indian Skimmer (Rynchops albicollis). Three threatened waterbirds, Storm’s
Stork (Ciconia stormi), White-winged Duck (Cairina scutulata) and
Masked Finfoot (Heliopais personata), occur in swamp forests and
sometimes mangroves including coastal localities, and therefore may be impacted
by sea-level rise, as are two threatened seabirds that occur in the Indian
Ocean: Abbott’s Booby (Papasula abbotti) and Christmas Island
Frigatebird (Fregata andrewsi).
Hundreds of species of flora
and fauna, including globally threatened species, depend upon low-lying coastal
ecosystems for their survival. Indeed estuarine habitats and mudflats are sensitive to changes in both
their upstream watersheds and the off-lying oceans. Several important biodiversity areas
including in particular protected and non-protected IBAs in the Bay of Bengal
and Arabian Sea, have already been stressed by numerous anthropogenic impacts
as well as by invasive species (Islam & Rahmani 2004; Islam & Rahmani
2008), perhaps making them less resilient to change from the outset.
Coastal areas are subject to
a range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could inhibit the ability of
populations to adapt to climate change (Crick 2004). The prediction of future coastal
evolution is hindered by the lack of standard methodology or agreement about
the types of data and approaches required (Boesch et al. 2000). Factors that may impede tracking coastal
changes include anthropogenic transformations, disjunct potential areas for
species migration, and barriers to dispersal; where possible, ecosystems may
respond by shifting inland, rather than with losses.
However, we note that
protected areas, which generally have legal descriptions as part of their
decrees, do not shift so easily, which may leave coastal areas inundated and
key habitats unprotected. The
inundation of mangroves is likely to result in a shift in species composition,
with the deepest mangroves dying out. The methods used in our analyses are clear and quantitative with
explicit assumptions. The relative
susceptibility of different coastal environments to sea-level rise may be
quantified at regional to national scales (Gornitz et al. 1994) using basic
data on coastal geomorphology, rate of sea-level rise, and past shoreline
evolution. More detailed coastal
and marine geological data is needed to permit a comprehensive assessment of
the susceptibility of the Indian subcontinent to sea-levelrise.
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